How Seriously Should We Take Reform's Popularity in Opinion Polls?

Reform UK, originally the Brexit Party, now tops voting intention polls— suggesting a seismic shift in British politics. On the back of securing 14% of the vote in the last General Election, Nigel Farage’s Reform UK threatens to smash the Labour-Conservative duopoly. A YouGov poll from February placed Reform at 25% of the vote, 1% ahead of Labour and 3% ahead of the Conservatives. Subsequent weekly polls from FindOutNow have not only confirmed these figures but shown support climbing to 28%, a 5% lead over Labour and 7% over the Tories. This surge signals a political reckoning, but is it an isolated tantrum —or part of a global far-right resurgence?

Reform’s popularity isn’t about its policies. It’s a howl of rage at a system rigged against ordinary people. Years of austerity, economic stagnation, and capitalism’s endless greed have shattered trust in politics. The Tories’ Brexit blunders, Covid cronyism, and civil war-style infighting have alienated their base. Labour, despite its majority, offers little hope. Starmer’s “Labour” bends to corporate donors, ditches pledges, and serves up bland centrism—leaving even loyal leftists wondering: what’s the point?

Reform UK’s playbook is old but effective: blame immigrants, rant about “wokeness”, and pose as the voice of the “ordinary voter” against a corrupt elite. Sound familiar? It’s UKIP 2.0. After the 2008 crash, Farage’s old crew pushed anti-EU rage into relevance. Now, Reform exploits post-Brexit disillusionment and a cost-of-living crisis. Their policies? Mostly noise. Their appeal? Pure fury at a system that prioritises profit over people.

But this isn’t just a British story. The 2024 racist riots in Britain and Ireland—fuelled by far-right grifters and xenophobic media hysteria—show how quickly despair sours into violence. Soundbites about “invading migrants” or “woke Marxists” distract from the real villains: landlords evicting families, privatisers gutting the NHS, and CEOs laughing all the way to their offshore banks.

The Global Far-Right Playbook

This isn’t unique to the UK. In the United States, Trumpism has reshaped the Republican Party and the geopolitical landscape. Trump’s government has already militarised the Mexican border, exploiting divisions over race and immigration. Now, he’s pushing to declare English the “national language”—a move designed to alienate minority communities and stoke cultural panic. Behind the scenes, his newly empowered “DOGE” office—a legally dubious cabal of MAGA billionaires—fuels the fire. At CPAC, attendees including Elon Musk and Steve Bannon were filmed performing Nazi salutes. The far-right’s extremist roots are laid bare, yet its poll numbers soar.

In Germany, the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) offers another grim parallel. Once a fringe protest party, it now commands 20.8% of the vote—the first time a far-right nationalist party has come second since the Nazis in 1930. Like Reform UK, the AfD thrives on scapegoating. It blames Muslims and migrants for capitalism’s crimes, redirecting anger from the real culprits: austerity architects and corporate looters. Its stronghold? Former East Germany, where deindustrialisation and poverty make fertile ground for hate.

These movements aren’t solutions. They’re symptoms of a global crisis—a crisis of inequality, environmental collapse, and democratic decay. Reform UK’s rise isn’t an outlier. It’s capitalism’s hangover.

Scapegoats Over Solutions

Let’s dissect Reform’s “solutions”. Anti-immigration hysteria; a distraction from decades of corporate land grabs and social housing selloffs. Tax cuts for the wealthy; perfect for oligarchs, catastrophic for public services. Climate indifference or denial; a gift to oil giants, a death sentence for the planet.

Reform’s agenda is a bandage on a bullet wound. But let’s not pretend Labour or the Tories are saviours. Both parties worship neoliberalism—privatising trains, outsourcing NHS contracts, and letting billionaires dodge taxes. Liberalism and fascism are two cheeks off the same arse: one enforces inequality with a smile, the other with a boot.

Should We Be Worried? (YES)

Britain’s first-past-the-post system, while it limited Reform UK to 5 seats in the last election, isn’t a safeguard. Designed to create “strong” governments, it hands the winner unchecked power with a minority of votes. Reform UK’s surge could gift Farage an elective dictatorship: a majority built on 30% support, with a mandate to wage war on migrants, workers, and the poor. Dismissing Reform as a protest movement is suicidal. The Nazis began as a fringe party; the AfD was once a protest vote. Farage isn’t a joke—he’s one symptom of a larger political malady. Westminster’s “respectable” politicians built this crisis, another one won’t solve it.

The real question isn’t Reform vs. the status quo. It’s whether we cling to a dying system or fight for something new. Tenant unions kicking out slumlords, mutual aid networks feeding communities, and strikes demanding living wages; solidarity is how we can all make real change.

With 40 people in Britain in prison for peaceful protesting while Labour is in government, and auld Nigel looking like he could be the next PM. Reform’s rise is a warning. Build class solidarity and unity, or watch fascism fill the void.

By Odhran Cassidy